[h=1]Potential 2013 RB keeper picks[/h][h=3]Fantasy Foresight: Are Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles and others keepers?
By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
[/h]At this time of year, fantasy owners are often challenged with loyalty tests. Do they stick with the high-end starter who helped get them to the playoffs, or do they chance putting someone else in the lineup because the high-end starter isn't producing at quite the level he produced at earlier in the season?
This same loyalty test occurs when it comes to deciding on keeper selections, as many no-brainer keeper picks from previous seasons may now be too risky to keep.
This week's Fantasy Foresight aims to help with those quandaries in the running back area by reviewing a number of top-shelf ball carriers to determine if they are good playoff starts and if they pass muster as keepers.
Chris Johnson
This past Sunday saw Johnson's six-game double-digit scoring streak come to an end. However, that shouldn't cause his fantasy owners to fret too much because it occurred against a Houston Texans defense that has the second-best points allowed mark against running backs. None of the Titans' remaining opponents (Indianapolis, New York Jets, Green Bay and Jacksonville) have defenses that are anywhere near as strong against the run as the Texans, so the competition level is quite favorable the rest of the way.
In addition, Johnson could benefit from having a new offensive coordinator (Dowell Loggains) and offensive assistant coach (longtime NFL assistant Tom Moore).
<offer>Former offensive coordinator Chris Palmer had a distressing habit of getting away from the play-calling elements that fit best with Johnson's skill set, but if Loggains' first week on the job is any indication, he aims to tailor an offense to his players' skills. He called a number of plays designed to let Johnson run in space and Johnson responded with a spirited effort that will pay off with many more points during the fantasy playoffs.
LeSean McCoy/Bryce Brown
The playoff start status for these two will be based more on McCoy's health and Andy Reid's willingness to use him down the stretch than anything else. Brown and McCoy have both been highly productive when in the lineup, so unless this devolves into a split-carry backfield (something that is possible but probably not likely) whoever is starting on the Eagles should be starting on a fantasy roster.
Where it gets really interesting is figuring out whether to protect McCoy or Brown in a keeper league. A lot of that could depend on the draft-round price tag, but consider that there has been a lot of talk about the Eagles possibly being interested in hiring Oregon Ducks head coach Chip Kelly (a move that Philadelphia linebacker Casey Matthews said would work well).
If that were to occur, it could be a huge plus for McCoy's and Brown's fantasy owners, as Kelly operates a run-first offense and the Ducks' 2011 stats show he is not hesitant to give large carry volumes to two running backs. It isn't hard to imagine McCoy being the LaMichael James and Brown being the Kenjon Barner of this scenario, so if this turns out to be more than a rumor, be sure to place keeper picks on both of these backs.
Matt Forte, Ray Rice and a general word of caution on running backs
Forte looks to be back at full strength, and Rice, despite the Ravens' blocking woes and his relative lack of productivity on plays with good blocking this year, has posted double-digit fantasy points in nine out of 12 games. So barring any injury issues, these two should obviously be considered must starts during the fantasy playoffs.
Where a potential question mark comes up is in deciding what to do with these two as keeper picks.
In Forte's case, one has to take into account his injuries over the past two seasons and the fact that his durability was said to be one reason the Bears were hesitant to give him a long-term contract extension this offseason.
In Rice's case, his durability isn't a question but there is a wear-and-tear factor fantasy owners should consider.
Over the course of his five-year career, Rice has racked up a combined 1,456 rush attempts and receptions. At his current pace, he will add about 80 more rushes/receptions to this total by season's end and will end up with more than 1,500 touches in his career heading into next season.
To get an idea of how much usage this is, take a look at the NFL career touches leaders on pro-football-reference.com. This list shows that only 52 backs in NFL history made it to the 2,000 combined rushes/receptions mark in their career and only 31 of those made it to the 2,500 mark.
At his current pace of roughly 350 rushes/receptions per season, Rice will be very close to the 2,000 bar in this category by the end of next season. Forte will be in a similar boat if he plays a full season, as he will also likely end the 2012 campaign with more than 1,500 career rushes/receptions (he currently has 1,446).
It is entirely possible that these two will be exceptions to the rule and get past the 2,000 barrier with no drop off. But if you are in a league with longer-term keeper rules and have to determine if keeping Rice or Forte (or even Johnson for that matter; he has 1,616 career touches) for two or more years is worth more than some other high-end running back with lesser usage levels who you could keep for three years, the suggestion here would be to take history's lesson to heart and keep the other running back.
Jamaal Charles
Charles looks to be a good play for the next four weeks, because none of the defenses on Kansas City's remaining schedule (Cleveland, Oakland, Indianapolis and Denver) offer the type of daunting matchup that might cause Charles to sit on the fantasy bench.
Charles also looks like he could be the beneficiary of a somewhat favorable run defense schedule in 2013. The NFL's rotational schedule has the Chiefs due to face Jacksonville, Indianapolis and Tennessee, all of whom currently rank 22nd or worse in rush yards allowed per game. Kansas City also has two games against Oakland (ranked 28th in rush yards allowed per game) and, depending on how the rest of the season plays out, could be facing off against either Buffalo or the New York Jets, who rank 29th and 30th, respectively, in rushing yards allowed.
Add those together and it means almost half of the Chiefs' games next year could be against teams with fairly weak run defenses. That type of future sounds like the makings of a good keeper pick.
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By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
This same loyalty test occurs when it comes to deciding on keeper selections, as many no-brainer keeper picks from previous seasons may now be too risky to keep.
This week's Fantasy Foresight aims to help with those quandaries in the running back area by reviewing a number of top-shelf ball carriers to determine if they are good playoff starts and if they pass muster as keepers.
Chris Johnson
This past Sunday saw Johnson's six-game double-digit scoring streak come to an end. However, that shouldn't cause his fantasy owners to fret too much because it occurred against a Houston Texans defense that has the second-best points allowed mark against running backs. None of the Titans' remaining opponents (Indianapolis, New York Jets, Green Bay and Jacksonville) have defenses that are anywhere near as strong against the run as the Texans, so the competition level is quite favorable the rest of the way.
In addition, Johnson could benefit from having a new offensive coordinator (Dowell Loggains) and offensive assistant coach (longtime NFL assistant Tom Moore).
<offer>Former offensive coordinator Chris Palmer had a distressing habit of getting away from the play-calling elements that fit best with Johnson's skill set, but if Loggains' first week on the job is any indication, he aims to tailor an offense to his players' skills. He called a number of plays designed to let Johnson run in space and Johnson responded with a spirited effort that will pay off with many more points during the fantasy playoffs.
LeSean McCoy/Bryce Brown
The playoff start status for these two will be based more on McCoy's health and Andy Reid's willingness to use him down the stretch than anything else. Brown and McCoy have both been highly productive when in the lineup, so unless this devolves into a split-carry backfield (something that is possible but probably not likely) whoever is starting on the Eagles should be starting on a fantasy roster.
Where it gets really interesting is figuring out whether to protect McCoy or Brown in a keeper league. A lot of that could depend on the draft-round price tag, but consider that there has been a lot of talk about the Eagles possibly being interested in hiring Oregon Ducks head coach Chip Kelly (a move that Philadelphia linebacker Casey Matthews said would work well).
If that were to occur, it could be a huge plus for McCoy's and Brown's fantasy owners, as Kelly operates a run-first offense and the Ducks' 2011 stats show he is not hesitant to give large carry volumes to two running backs. It isn't hard to imagine McCoy being the LaMichael James and Brown being the Kenjon Barner of this scenario, so if this turns out to be more than a rumor, be sure to place keeper picks on both of these backs.
Matt Forte, Ray Rice and a general word of caution on running backs
Forte looks to be back at full strength, and Rice, despite the Ravens' blocking woes and his relative lack of productivity on plays with good blocking this year, has posted double-digit fantasy points in nine out of 12 games. So barring any injury issues, these two should obviously be considered must starts during the fantasy playoffs.
Where a potential question mark comes up is in deciding what to do with these two as keeper picks.
In Forte's case, one has to take into account his injuries over the past two seasons and the fact that his durability was said to be one reason the Bears were hesitant to give him a long-term contract extension this offseason.
In Rice's case, his durability isn't a question but there is a wear-and-tear factor fantasy owners should consider.
Over the course of his five-year career, Rice has racked up a combined 1,456 rush attempts and receptions. At his current pace, he will add about 80 more rushes/receptions to this total by season's end and will end up with more than 1,500 touches in his career heading into next season.
To get an idea of how much usage this is, take a look at the NFL career touches leaders on pro-football-reference.com. This list shows that only 52 backs in NFL history made it to the 2,000 combined rushes/receptions mark in their career and only 31 of those made it to the 2,500 mark.
At his current pace of roughly 350 rushes/receptions per season, Rice will be very close to the 2,000 bar in this category by the end of next season. Forte will be in a similar boat if he plays a full season, as he will also likely end the 2012 campaign with more than 1,500 career rushes/receptions (he currently has 1,446).
It is entirely possible that these two will be exceptions to the rule and get past the 2,000 barrier with no drop off. But if you are in a league with longer-term keeper rules and have to determine if keeping Rice or Forte (or even Johnson for that matter; he has 1,616 career touches) for two or more years is worth more than some other high-end running back with lesser usage levels who you could keep for three years, the suggestion here would be to take history's lesson to heart and keep the other running back.
Jamaal Charles
Charles looks to be a good play for the next four weeks, because none of the defenses on Kansas City's remaining schedule (Cleveland, Oakland, Indianapolis and Denver) offer the type of daunting matchup that might cause Charles to sit on the fantasy bench.
Charles also looks like he could be the beneficiary of a somewhat favorable run defense schedule in 2013. The NFL's rotational schedule has the Chiefs due to face Jacksonville, Indianapolis and Tennessee, all of whom currently rank 22nd or worse in rush yards allowed per game. Kansas City also has two games against Oakland (ranked 28th in rush yards allowed per game) and, depending on how the rest of the season plays out, could be facing off against either Buffalo or the New York Jets, who rank 29th and 30th, respectively, in rushing yards allowed.
Add those together and it means almost half of the Chiefs' games next year could be against teams with fairly weak run defenses. That type of future sounds like the makings of a good keeper pick.
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